Deebo Samuel and Kyle Shanahan: Made for Each Other

The 2019 draft's receiver class is one of the strongest in recent memory, with three players headlining the class and sucking up the majority of the attention: DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and Terry McLaurin. Beyond them, though, there's a tier of very solid receivers that have fallen under the radar. These include Diontae Johnson, Darius Slayton, Marquise Brown, and Hunter Renfrow. Maybe most underrated of all is Deebo Samuel. After the big three, he leads all receivers in yards per game, and that is done with fewer targets than anybody else within ten yards of him.

I think it is important for me to include a disclaimer here that what follows will focus on the good side of Samuel (and coach Kyle Shanahan) as well as his potential. Samuel is not a perfect player, and Shanahan is not a perfect coach. This is not a player film analysis because I am only considering highlights and some statistics that make Samuel look amazing. It is not an objective review of what Samuel and Shanahan have accomplished, it's about what they can accomplish at their bests.

Deebo Samuel

In just the second game of his career, Deebo Samuel showed just how explosive he can be. Playing just 27 snaps, Deebo caught 5 passes on 7 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown, the first of his career. This might not sound crazy, but that much production on that few snaps is incredible. When Samuel set his career-high with 134 yards eight weeks later, he played more than twice as many snaps. So, how did he do it? As it often is with Deebo, the answer is big plays. All but ten of his yards came on two plays, which each demonstrated a different side of Deebo's explosiveness. The first was the kind of play that would become a staple for San Fransisco.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo fakes a handoff to Samuel, then tosses him a screen. Deebo secures the catch and is off to the races, running past most of the Bengals' defense in the blink of an eye. Before you know it, he's gained 38 yards. Samuel has the ability to pick the perfect angle that stops defenders from even touching them. While the scheme is a large component of this (which we'll get into later), Samuel is close to the perfect player in space. He's fast, but more than anything, he's quick, and he's smart too. The second play, though, is the one that really shows Samuel's potential as a playmaker.

On the first play from scrimmage in the second half, Samuel runs straight at Bengals cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, forcing Kirkpatrick to turn his hips and run upfield with Samuel or risk being burnt on a go route. Samuel runs with Kirkpatrick for about five more yards before completely losing him with a cut inside. As soon as Deebo starts to turn, Garoppolo releases the ball. The timing needs to be perfect, and it is, with Samuel giving Garoppolo some leeway due to the separation he has (about four yards). The throw is good enough, and Deebo catches it, then picks an optimal angle to do extra damage, finishing the reception with a broken tackle and more than fifteen extra yards. The drive was capped with a two-yard pass to a rookie wide receiver named Deebo Samuel.

Deebo isn't just fast, though. He's strong, he's physical, and he's aggressive. While Samuel is a compact 5'11", you wouldn't know it when matched up against him because he doesn't just fight through contact, he initiates it. He is often able to simply overpower any defensive backs in his path. One great example is a critical play against Seattle. With less than seven minutes left in the fourth quarter of a division-deciding week 17 matchup, San Fransisco faced third and five just inside field goal range. Needing a big play, the 49ers turned to Deebo, who was matched up with Pro Bowl cornerback Shaquill Griffin. This is what happened:

Samuel gets a clean release off the line, giving him a half-step advantage on Griffin from the very start. Then, with Griffin chasing him, Samuel viciously cuts back, tossing Griffin to the side without so much contact that a flag could reasonably be thrown. By the time Griffin recovers, Samuel is already six yards away, a gap that only expands until the ball comes in a bit behind him. With the elite quarterbacks of the world, Samuel might have even had a chance to gain some additional yardage in space, something he's incredibly good at. He's also very difficult to bring down, something this next play illustrates well.

Even if this had been just a five-yard carry, I would be impressed. Samuel has to pick a relatively precise angle to get past Justin Hollins, who is being blocked by a running back. But after that, he makes the heads-up play to keep fighting even when everyone else on the field thinks he is down. If not for the placement of Rams safety John Johnson, this is a touchdown. Instead, it's a 35-yard gain, all of them—and five more—coming after the catch (which was really a handoff without the prospect of a fumble). Deebo does both the big things and the little things. Once he gets behind a defender, they aren't catching him, but even in front of them, he's really difficult to get on the ground. 

So Samuel is good at getting separation and generating yards after the catch, but these are just highlights. How well does he do with these things in a larger sample? Thanks to player tracking metrics from Next Gen Stats, we can tell. In 2019, as a rookie, Deebo finished with a very respectable, if not elite, resume. Samuel posted a separation number in the 78th percentile, meaning he was, on average, farther from the nearest defender at the time of the throw than three-quarters of qualifying receivers. His YAC over expected was even better, showing up in the 82nd percentile. Expected YAC is based on the location and speed of defenders and blockers, which is then compared to a receiver's actual yards after the catch to create this advanced metric. Samuel also showed off his sure hands, finishing in the 86th percentile of catch% by catching 57 of his 81 targets.

Last year, Samuel started only five games in an injury-riddled sophomore campaign. For that reason, you should take this next paragraph (and all of this, as injuries are a massive concern) with a grain of salt. However, even in that sample, the numbers speak for themselves. His catch% improved slightly, with Samuel shifting upwards to the 89th percentile as he caught exactly three-quarters of his passes. His separation, though, was first among qualifiers, as Deebo created 0.4 more yards of separation on average than any other NFL receiver. His YAC over expected paints an even better picture of Samuel's production, suggesting that, once the ball is in hands, he adds 4.4 more yards after the catch than expected. One of the reasons is that Samuel catches the ball behind the line of scrimmage so often, with a whopping -7 yards at the time of the catch in 2020. Yep, the statistically average Deebo Samuel catch was behind the LOS. His air yards were, unsurprisingly, the lowest in the league. But, while Deebo is great, a lot of that success must be attributed to coach Kyle Shanahan.

Kyle Shanahan

To see the masterful playcalling of Kyle Shanahan, let's return to that week 17 clash with Seattle. What will end as a 26-21 win is now a 3-0 lead near the end of the first quarter. It's second and four, the perfect chance to take a shot. Sometimes, handing the ball off to Samuel can have the same effect. Excluding penalties, 44% of Samuel's 282 career yards on the ground are from just four of his twenty-seven carries. Eleven of those, however, ended with Samuel gaining three yards or fewer. The idea of having an over 50% chance of converting a first down and a chance for more made this an ideal time to hand the ball off to Samuel. Shanahan didn't just hand him the ball, though. He did everything he could to maximize what Deebo could do with it.

Within the video are a pair of freezeframes that show how well this play worked. The first comes right when Garoppolo fakes the handoff to Raheem Mostert and the moments immediately following. Seattle has five players engaged at the line, and all of the players behind it have no idea where the ball is. If Garoppolo had handed the ball off, this would have been a loss. Instead, it leaves the opposite side of the field with only one player (cornerback Tre Flowers), and it's clear there are more than enough blockers to deal with him. The second moment occurs a split-second after Deebo Samuel gets the ball. No fewer than four Seahawks have broken through the 49ers offensive line, but each is a moment too late, having overrun the play. Upfield, Samuel has five blockers, including fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who is positioned perfectly to take out any defender in his path. Instead, Juszczyk gets two with a perfectly timed cut block. With a spin inches away from the sideline, Deebo scored a touchdown that would prove critical.

That play illustrated both of the ways that many of Shanahan's calls work. The first is that misdirection often plays a critical part, freeing up blockers by leaving defenders trying to tackle the wrong player. The Niners' offense is full of unique players that make this work, like Juszczyk, who the 49ers see as an "offensive weapon," and Kittle, who offers a lot both as a receiver and a blocker. Shanahan ties them all together, and sometimes the playcalling is just really fun, making you ask why other teams don't run similar plays more often. This misdirection-filled play against the Panthers is a great example:

The handoff to Samuel is so subtle and quick that the Panthers can't react, and it's the kind of play that doesn't rely on great linemen, instead focusing on the element of surprise and the speed of Samuel. On the other hand, there are plays where San Fransisco just outmuscles and outmans their opponents. Besides creative plays, spending on the offensive line is a large reason why. While their offensive line spending was just average last year, it will be just outside of the top ten next year. In 2019, when a healthy Samuel found his most success, the 49ers were sixth in the entire league in terms of spending on that particular position group. Sometimes, the 49ers free up so many blockers that they don't even need them all to overpower their opponents. Late in a crucial battle with the Saints in 2019, Deebo had a thirty-one-yard run that was a big part of the Niners' eventual win. What did Joe Staley do on that play? Well, he went for a jog.

Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant play-caller. Deebo Samuel is an explosive playmaker. Together, though they're something special. Samuel and Shanahan are a textbook example of certain partnerships being better than the sum of their parts. Somewhere other than San Fransisco, Deebo might be seen as a gadget player or a simple deep threat. He might even be used as a traditional running back, with his team shoving him between the tackles in one of football's least efficient plays. Instead, Samuel finds himself as a valuable and essential piece of one of the best passing attacks in the NFL despite lacking the elite quarterback that most of them possess. (In 2019, the 49ers finished fourth in Expected Points Contributed by passing offense. The quarterbacks of each of the other teams in the top ten, in order, are as follow: Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and Deshaun Watson. That's the cream of the crop, especially with the three teams on either side of them.)

Made for Each Other

Week 13 of the 2019 NFL season had a clear headliner: San Francisco 49ers (10-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-2). Early in what seemed at the time like it might be a Super Bowl preview, the 49ers faced fourth down at the 33. The Fourth Down Decision Calculator from rbsdm.com was in favor of them going. Shanahan decided to go with the analytics, but he did it even more aggressively than Baltimore expected. Of the five eligible receivers, two stayed home to block, one slipped on a quick chip-and-slant, one ran a fifteen-yard out, and one ran a go route. The Ravens, not expecting this, had huge holes in their zone that left Deebo's go route wide open. This was where the lack of an elite quarterback came in.

Instead of leading Samuel to the open space near the pylon, Jimmy Garoppolo threw it right at cornerback Marcus Peters, a costly mistake on fourth down. Luckily, Peters reacted an instant too late and Deebo beat him to the ball. They collided, but it looked like Samuel is the one dishing out the hit more than Peters. Samuel then made the difficult catch and turned a certain turnover on downs into a touchdown. Without the gutsy call from Shanahan, and without the amazing play by Samuel, this never would have happened. They proved once again that they are nearly perfect for each other, and it led to what really matters in the NFL: points.

As amazing as that play is, though, it isn't the play that truly sums up how well they work together. For that, we must turn to another run play, this time in the biggest game of Deebo Samuel's life. Super Bowl LIV couldn't have started much better for the 49ers, with them forcing a punt within the first minute of the game. Then, it was the offense's chance to put the game's first points on the board. Tight end George Kittle got them started with an eleven-yard reception on second down to set up first and ten at the 28. Kyle Shanahan then decided that it was time to try for a big play. Instead of hurling the ball deep, though, he would run an end-around with Deebo Samuel. Here's how it went.

This is simply beautiful football. On the biggest stage in American sports, Kyle Shanahan dialed up a brilliant play that worked perfectly with his rookie wide receiver. In terms of X's and O's, it's similar to what they ran against Seattle a few games prior. The stakes just make it that much better. After this play, the 49ers drove into field goal range. Deebo Samuel converted on a key third down with what was designed as a pass but turned into what was essentially a QB draw as Garoppolo was covered. While the Niners failed to find paydirt, they did get the game's first points on a 38-yard field goal by kicker Robbie Gould.

This story, of course, lacks a happy ending for Shanahan and Samuel. Just three years after coaching the offense of the famous 28-3 Falcons, the former watched his team once again finding themselves unable to sustain a ferocious comeback led by a wonderful quarterback. Just as in Super Bowl LI, his team found themselves given a more than 95% chance to win by ESPN at one point. They simply couldn't get the job done. After the loss, Samuel found himself with a 2020 campaign ruined by injuries. First, he fractured his foot training with teammates and missed the season's first three games. Then, a hamstring strain on a run cost him three more, before another hamstring game sidelined him for the season's final three games. The 49ers lost six of those nine games.

Injury concerns aside, Samuel is one of the most promising receivers in the NFL, and Kyle Shanahan one of the league's best play-callers. Next season, they'll have a healthier team and a new quarterback. If the Niners draft Justin Fields, Mac Jones, or Trey Lance, you could make a case that the team will be immediately improved. Jimmy G has looked downright awful at times, and any of these guys (especially Fields) would be set up for a historic rookie year in San Fransisco. As a Seahawks fan, I hate it. As an NFL fan, I love it.

Alex Ruiz Mock Draft 2.0

With the first wave of NFL free agency over, teams have filled some of their needs or waiting to draft prospects. Last Friday, the 49ers shook up the Draft by acquiring the 3rd overall pick from the Miami Dolphins by sending two future first-round picks, a 3rd rounder, and the 12th pick this year. Miami then sent one of the 49ers first-rounders and the 12th pick to the eagles for the 6th overall pick. Here is my latest mock draft after all these changes. The NFL draft is now a month away.

Pick #1

The Jacksonville Jaguars selects: Trevor Lawrence (QB)

The Jags made additions to their Wide Receiver core to ultimately help out Lawrence. Urban Meyer will have a great prospect to work within his first season.

Pick #2

The New York Jets selects: Zach Wilson (QB)

The Jets will most likely move on from Sam Darnold or have a Quarterback competition. Wilson is loved by many scouts and deservingly so his ability to make all the throws in college will most likely translate to success at the pro level.

Pick #3

The San Francisco 49ers select: Justin Fields (QB)

Trading up to number 3 overall is a move to get a QB. Jimmy Garrapollo hasn't consistently put up convincing performances with many believing that he is holding this team back. Justin Fields is going to be better over Jimmy G. Period. It would be in the Niner’s best interest to move on from Jimmy.

Pick #4

The Atlanta Falcons select: Kyle Pitts (TE)

Matt Ryan will most likely stay on the Falcons( He has a 50 Million dollar cap hit next year). To help out Ryan on the offensive end they get the versatile playmaker Kyle Pitts. He’s got great speed and height that it's impossible to not notice him on the field. Pitts will give Ryan a reliable target wherever he is lined up. This offense will be electric with new head coach Arthur Smith.

Pick #5

The Cincinnati Bengals select: Penei Sewell (OT)

Joe Burrow needs protection!!! Sewell dominated against pass rushers in the PAC-12 and is the clear-cut move for the Bengals. He’ll be a helpful peace in improving the O-line.

Pick #6

The Miami Dolphins select Ja’marr Chase (WR)

While the O-line should be a priority for Miami, Chase is not worth passing up upon. I’ve been back and forth on Chase and Devonta smith. Chase looks more NFL-ready and can quickly make an impact on the game. Tua’s receiving core gets better as he approaches his sophomore season.

Pick #7

The Detroit Lions select Jaylen Waddle (WR)

The Lions lost both Kenny Golliday and Marvin Jones Jr in free agency. Waddle is speedy and a great after-the-catch receiver. He’s got great hands and phenomenal route running. The lions need to give Goff help if they want to have a functioning offense.

Pick# 8

The Carolina Panthers select: Trey Lance (QB)

Lance falls right into the hands of the panthers as he’ll most likely be backing up Teddy Bridgewater. Lance had a good pro day showing off the arm but he still needs to sharpen his accuracy and decision-making. Backing up for a year should help his development as the panthers will likely roll with Teddy for at least another year.

Pick# 9

The Denver Broncos Select: Mac Jones (QB)

Denver is a Quarterback away from being a bad team to a good team. Drew Lock couldn't prove he can be the guy last year. Jones was incredible in the Alabama offense leading them to the national championship last year. He isn't the most athletic QB prospect but his IQ and decision-making are extremely high. Mac still has lots to prove as he was surrounded with NFL-level talent in college.

Pick#10

The Dallas Cowboys select: Patrick Surtain II (CB)

The Cowboy’s secondary was horrendous and kept the Cowboys from winning games. Surtain was great in college covering the best receivers in the SEC. Time will tell if Surtain’s physical game will translate well into the NFL.

Pick #11

The New York Giants select: Rashawn Slater (OT)

The Giants made great moves to give Daniel Jones the best shot to succeed in his 3rd season. They can add more help by protecting the edges with Slater. Jones struggled under pressure and that is where his horrible decision-making was on full display. Slater can help keep Jones safe from edge pressure to help the Giants fight for a playoff berth.

Pick #12

The Philadelphia Eagles select: Devonta Smith (WR)

Smith weighed in at 170 pounds on pro day leaving some people concerned. I believe that this will have him fall into the draft and be the #3 receiver in this class. Philly does need more Wide Receiver help for Jalen Hurts. The Heisman winner will definitely be a player to watch progress and adapt to the pros.

Pick #13

The Los Angeles Chargers select: Christian Darrisaw (OT)

The Chargers must protect their Franchise QB to get the most production out of him. Darrisaw adds protection to the edge as the chargers continue to build their O-line. This Chargers offense should excel next year giving Herbert protection and more time to throw.

Pick #14

The Minnesota Vikings select: Jaycee Horn (CB)

Horn had an incredible pro day that left me very impressed. Horn will get to learn from veteran Patrick Peterson. Minnesota’s secondary could not cover especially with DanielleHunter and Harrison Smith dealing with injuries last year. Minnesota will need Horn if they want to fight for a playoff spot in the tough NFC.

Pick #15

The New England Patriots select: Alijah Vera-Tucker (IOL)

Losing Joe Thuney to the Kansas City Chiefs was big to their offensive line. The Patriots made lots of signings to help Cam Newton offensively and Vera-Tucker help stabilizes the O-line. The USC Trojan fills up the weak spot on the Offensive line as the Patriots continue their active offseason.

Pick #16

The Arizona Cardinals select: Caleb Farley (CB)

Arizona let their corners walk in free agency and now their focus is on building that team. Farley is an athletic freak at his position. His speed is unmatched and can stay with the fastest receivers. The Cardinals will need all the help they can get at the corner position to compete in the NFC West.

Pick# #17

The Las Vegas Raiders select: Micah Parsons (LB)

The Raider’s defense has set them back tremendously for the past 2 seasons. Micah Parsons had a great pro day showing off the speed, footwork, and agility. He might have to take some time to find his role both on the inside and outside. Raiders get great talent to help their weak Linebacker core.

Pick #18

The Miami Dolphins select: Kwity Paye (DE)

Miami adds more pass rush with the help of Kwity Paye. The Fins have a great secondary and adding a young pass rusher will help maintain the defense at a high level. Miami will remain a defensive team with this addition.

Draft picks for the playoff teams

Pick #19

The Washington Football team selects: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB)

Pick #20

The Chicago Bears select: Trevin Jenkins (OT)

Pick #21

The Indianapolis Colts select: Gregory Rousseau (DE)

Pick #22

The Tennessee Titans select: Greg Newsome II (CB)

Pick #23

The New York Jets select: Najee Harris (RB)

Pick #24

The Pittsburgh Steelers select: Jaylen Mayfield (OT)

Pick #25

The Jacksonville Jaguars select: Trevon Moehrig (S)

Pick #26

The Cleveland Browns select: Asante Samuel Jr (CB)

Pick # 27

The Baltimore Ravens select: Kadarius Toney (WR)

Pick #28

The New Orleans Saints select: Rahshod Bateman (WR)

Pick# 29:

The Green Bay Packers select: Terrace Marshall Jr (WR)

Pick #30

The Buffalo Bills select: Azeez Ojulari (DE)

Pick #31

The Kansas City Chiefs select: Samuel Cosmi (OT)

Pick #31

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select: Zaven Collins (DE)