2021 NBA Conference Finals Preview and Breakdown
After an exciting and riveting semi-final round for both conferences, we move on to the final four teams left in the 2021 NBA playoffs! For the Western Conference Finals, the potentially Chris Paul-less Phoenix Suns will be facing off against the Kawhi Leonard-less Los Angeles Clippers. For the Eastern Conference Finals, the Milwaukee Bucks will square off with either the Philadelphia 76ers or the Atlanta Hawks. These two matchups will certainly make for some fireworks in this round, and I, for one, can't wait to watch! This article is the fourth of five articles, in which I break down each stage of the playoffs. The posting schedule throughout the playoffs will be as followed:
Play-in preview (which can be found here)
1st Round Preview (which can be found here)
Semi-Finals Preview (which can be found here)
Conference Finals Preview
Finals Preview
This postseason's Conference Finals round includes all of the following matchups:
(East) #1 Philadelphia 76ers OR #5 Atlanta Hawk v #3 Milwaukee Bucks
(West) #2 Phoenix Suns v #4 Los Angeles Clippers
So, without further ado, let's get into the previews!
Eastern Conference
Disclaimer: Because Milwaukee's matchup will not be decided by the time I need to post this article, I will be writing segments for each possibility, Milwaukee v Philadelphia, and Milwaukee v Atlanta. When the matchup is officially set, I'll delete the other version, and keep the segment that became the official matchup.
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#1 PHI v #3 MIL
📸 courtesy of CBS Sports
Philadelphia's Keys To The Series:
Match up properly defensively against Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday
Shoot efficiently
Don't disappear in the 4th quarter (again)
For Philly's first key to this series, they need to match up properly against Milwaukee's big 3. Philly has two elite perimeter defenders in Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle, and a great interior defender in Joel Embiid. The Bucks are a great 3-level scoring team, with the facilities to punish you from anywhere in the halfcourt. Philadelphia was the top-rated team defensively in the regular season this year, so I believe they have what it takes to limit Milwaukee, but it won't be easy.
For the 76ers second key against Milwaukee, they must shoot the ball as efficiently as possible. Besides Seth Curry, Philly doesn't have anyone who can consistently knock down 3-point shots with ease. Curry is an amazing shooter, but if he's the only source of Philly's shooting from deep, they won't be able to keep up with Milwaukee's scoring onslaught. Ben Simmons can potentially drag Philly's shooting down with his abysmal free-throw shooting and shooting overall. He needs to focus on facilitating and playing stout defense if Philly wants to win this series. Not only him, but guys like Shake Milton, Tobias Harris, Matisse Thybulle, and George Hill need to take smart shots all around and try to stay ahead of the Bucks instead of chasing their tails.
And for Philly's final key in this series, they just can't do what plagued them against the Hawks in the semi-finals. Philly blew multiple double-digit leads that lead to them losing those games, which made that series much closer than it needed to be. In game 5 of that series, the only players to score a field goal in the second half were Embiid and Curry, which is just embarrassing. The 76ers as a whole need to step up and prove themselves capable of building a lead and holding it.
Milwaukee's Keys To The Series:
Swing the ball around the perimeter
Pressure and contest Seth Curry
In close games, hack Ben Simmons
For Milwaukee's first key to this series, they need to swing the ball around the 3-point line to stretch out Philly's defense. As I said earlier, Philadelphia had the top-ranked defense in the regular season, so if Milwaukee wants to win this series they need to stretch it thin. By doing that, they can open up easy driving lanes for Giannis Antetokounpo, and holes in the midrange for Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday to work in.
For Milwaukee's second key against Philly, they must apply as much pressure to Seth Curry as possible. Curry, being one of the most efficient 3-point shooters in the NBA, is able to light you on fire from beyond the 3-point arc. Milwaukee has a multitude of solid perimeter defenders that help contribute to a high level of team switchability. The 76ers like to open up off-the-dribble 3's for Curry with screens around the perimeter, so if Milwaukee can either fight through the screens or switch on the screens, getting a hand in Curry's face can force him out of good shots.
And for Milwaukee's 3rd and final key against the 76ers, they need to take a lesson from the Wizards and the Hawks. When in doubt, hack Ben Simmons. Simmons is shooting 33.8% from the free-throw line this postseason, which is absolutely abysmal. Towards the end of close games in both Philly's series against Washington, and Philly's series against Atlanta, Ben Simmons was intentionally fouled and sent to the free-throw line continuously. Because he's such an awful free-throw shooter, the chances of him missing both of his free shots and the other team getting the ball back quickly are high. If Milwaukee ever needs to intentionally foul to stop the clock in the final minutes or seconds of a close game, they need to go after Ben Simmons like a pack of dogs chasing a massive steak.
Game 1 Prediction: 76ers Win 122-116
Game 2 Prediction: Bucks Win 117-110
Game 3 Prediction: Bucks Win 120-115
Game 4 Prediction: 76ers Win 109-103
Game 5 Prediction: Bucks Win 113-108
Game 6 Prediction: Bucks Win 119-112
Series MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo (34.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 5.2 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: Ben Simmons (11.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 6.1 APG)
Despite Philadelphia's overall regular-season success, the Bucks will prove to be just too much for them. If the 76ers build a lead, I expect them to have the same struggles as they did in their semi-finals series against Atlanta. Milwaukee will own the second half, and between Ben Simmons being almost a non-factor on offense and Giannis Antetokounmpo and P.J. Tucker being draped on Joel Embiid, we'll be seeing some new Embiid crying memes.
OR
#3 MIL v #5 ATL
📸 courtesy of SBNation - Peach Tree Hoops
Milwaukee's Keys To The Series:
Contest Atlanta's shooters
On offense, attack Trae Young
Block Trae Young's passing lanes
For Milwaukee's first key to this series, they need to get hands up in the faces of Atlanta's sharpshooters. Bogdan Bogdanović, Lou Williams, Kevin Heurter, and even Danilo Gallinari are all threats around the 3-point arc, so if Milwaukee can hustle to contest their 3-point attempts, the Bucks can get ahead and stay ahead in this series.
For Milwaukee's second key against Atlanta, they need to attack Trae Young as much as they can. Young is a massive liability on defense, and will pretty much roll over anytime you drive at him. His combination of small size and a natural lack of defensive ability and instinct will allow pretty much anyone on the Bucks a positive scoring opportunity.
And for Milwaukee's third and final key to this series against the Hawks, they need to block Trae Young's passing lanes as much as possible. Jrue Holiday is one of the best guard defenders in the NBA, so he'll be matched up against Trae Young as much as possible. I am confident that Holiday can stay in front of Young and force him into traps and kick-outs. If Milwaukee can intercept his passes in those situations, they can hit the ground running and build leads off of forced turnovers and fast break buckets.
Atlanta's Keys To The Series:
Hide Trae Young on defense
Lockdown the paint
Win the 3-point battle
For Atlanta's first key against Milwaukee, they need to hide Trae Young on defense as much as possible. Milwaukee will probably go after him by switching their top players onto him with screens at the top of the key, but he's Atlanta's worst defensive player by a considerable margin. As I said earlier, Young's small size and lack of defensive ability put a huge target on his back for opposing scorers, seeing as attacking him will most likely lead to an easy shot. Yong doesn't have the size to seriously contest anyone on the Bucks and he doesn't have the defensive footwork to stay in front of anyone on the Bucks, so Atlanta's head coach Nate McMillan needs to stick Young in the corner and try to avoid having him guard just about anyone from Giannis Antetokounmpo to Pat Connaughton.
For Atlanta's second key to this series, they must limit Milwaukee's interior scoring by locking down the painted area. Clint Capela is an excellent rim protector, but Atlanta doesn't have anyone other than him manning the paint. Milwaukee has plenty of slashers that can make runs at Capela, but Giannis Antetokounmpo and his rare combination of size, speed, strength, and skill will allow him to finish over (or sometimes even through) Capela a good amount. The Hawks need to provide Capela with as much help as possible around the hoop to keep the Bucks from tearing them apart.
And for Atlanta's last ket against the Bucks, they absolutely need to win the 3-point battle. Milwaukee had an uncharacteristically bad shooting series in their semi-finals series against the Nets, but I expect them to bounce back and regain their touch, especially from 3-point range. Atlanta has enough reliable shooters from beyond the arc to outscore Milwaukee in that field, and if they can, they'll keep the Bucks from creating too much separation on the scoreboard.
Game 1 Prediction: Bucks Win 131-118
Game 2 Prediction: Bucks Win 124-115
Game 3 Prediction: Hawks Win 118-113
Game 4 Prediction: Bucks Win 120-109
Game 5 Prediction: Hawks Win 114-109
Game 6 Prediction: Bucks Win 125-111
Series MVP: Khris Middleton (29.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.9 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: John Collins (16.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.1 APG)
Let me just say, I am surprised Atlanta made it to the Eastern Conference Finals, and I applaud them for doing so and knocking out the East's #1 seeded Philadelphia 76ers on the way. But, the Hawks just don't have the defense to stop Milwaukee's offensive threats, and they just don't have the overall offense to outduel Milwaukee's excellent switchability. The future is bright in Atlanta, but the Bucks are hungrier than ever before.
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Western Conference
#2 PHX v #4 LAC
📸 courtesy of SBNation - Bright Side Of The Sun
Phoenix's Keys To The Series:
Contain Paul George
Be ready for the small-ball lineup
Maintain proper well-oiled offense without prime facilitating from Chris Paul
For Phoenix's first key against the Clippers, they need to be able to contain (or at least limit) Paul George. With Kawhi Leonard not traveling with the Clippers due to a knee injury that will be sidelining him for the foreseeable future, Paul George is LA's one source of high-level elite scoring. George is the one reliable and top-tier bucket getter with Leonard injured. He carried the Clippers through the last two games of their semi-finals matchup against the Utah Jazz (in which Leonard did not play), so if Phoenix can try to limit his impact on offense LA's scoring will be greatly diminished.
For Phoenix's second key to this series, head coach Monty Williams is going to have to make preparations for LA's small-ball lineup. Against Utah, the Clippers played a primarily small-ball lineup to stretch Utah's 3-time DPOY center Rudy Gobert out of the paint and beat him starting from the perimeter. Gobert thrives in drop coverage and overall rim protection, so LAC's small-ball strategy forced Gobert to chase his defensive assignments around the perimeter where they could beat him to the bucket with the speed that Gobert lacks, or step back and shoot over him for easy 3-pointers. During the regular season this year, Gobert contested 13.9 2-pointers and just 3.2 3-pointers per 75 possessions. In the semi-finals against LAC, Gobert was forced to contest 9.3 2-pointers and 8.4 3-pointers per 75 possessions. If Clippers head coach Ty Lue brings out the small ball to stretch Phoenix's defense, the Suns need to have a plan to combat that.
And for Phoenix's final key to this series, they need to be able to maintain their offensive coherence without lead facilitator Chris Paul. Paul has been confirmed to be out of game 1 against the Clippers, as he is still in the NBA's COVID-19 Health and Safety Protocols. We don't know much information on Paul's situation, just that he will be missing in action for game 1 and most likely more games after that. I've compared Phoenix's offense to the DisneyWorld Bubble Miami Heat offense, with lots of off-ball movement and cutting to free up shooters and slashers for easy scoring opportunities anywhere in the halfcourt. Phoenix is able to sustain this offensive system with the playmaking of Chris Paul, so someone like Devin Booker or Cameron Payne must handle those duties well enough to keep Phoenix's offense from collapsing.
Los Angeles' Keys To The Series:
Make your 3's
Cut off Phoenix's cutters and slashers
If Paul George hits a cold streak, work the ball around to find an open shot
For LA's first key to this series, they need to convert on as many of their 3-point attempts as possible. The Clippers aren't a top 3-point shooting team, but they have multiple players who can most definitely knock down their 3's (Terence Mann, Serge Ibaka, Marcus Morris Sr., etc). Phoenix is an efficient team on offense, so keeping up with them will be easier for LAC by simply making their 3's. For LA's second key against Phoenix, they must clog up Phoenix's cutters and slashers that generate easy opportunities. As I've mentioned, the Suns generate easy opportunities with backdoor cuts to the hoop and pesty off-ball movement to various spots around the 3-point line. LAC needs to exude maximum switchability in order to limit Phoenix's cutters and keep the score close. And for Los Angeles' final key to this series against Phoenix, in the case of a Pandemic P appearance, the Clippers need to work the ball around to other scorers and let Paul George regain his touch. Terence Mann had an excellent game 6 against Utah in the semi-finals and had consistently solid performances throughout each game of that series. Marcus Morris is a decent subsidiary scorer and he can help take the load off of George's shoulders if needed. Without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers need to play their best basketball to win this series.
Game 1 Prediction: Suns Win 110-104
Game 2 Prediction: Suns Win 116-109
Game 3 Prediction: Clippers Win 121-116
Game 4 Prediction: Suns Win 112-105
Game 5 Prediction: Clippers Win 103-97
Game 6 Prediction: Suns Win 113-106
Series MVP: Devin Booker (31.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.6 APG)
Biggest Disappointment: Deandre Ayton (14.7 PPG, 2.1 APG, 7.3 RPG)
Both teams in this series will be without their top players (LA will be without Kawhi Leonard and Phoenix will be without Chris Paul) indefinitely as of now, so this series will come down to how well these squads can perform without their leaders. I see the Suns as the deeper team, so I have them advancing to the 2021 NBA Finals.
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And that concludes my 2021 NBA Conference Finals Preview/Breakdown, I hope you enjoyed it! NBA Playoff Time is just about my favorite time of year, so I look forward to bringing you this series of playoff stage previews and breakdowns throughout the rest of this postseason! Thank you for reading, and stay tuned for the rest of these previews/breakdowns! I will be doing one for every round of the playoffs!