One Offseason Key for Every NFL Team

For teams good, bad, young, and old, the offseason is an opportunity. It is an opportunity to regroup, to improve, to make moves for now and the future. But too often, that opportunity becomes a missed opportunity, and teams can slip into the purgatory of mediocrity. When teams are smart in the draft and free agency, they often lay the groundwork for a potential dynasty.

This offseason, each team has the same opportunity they have had in the past; a chance to take advantage of this time between seasons. No two teams are the same, so each has a different path to a successful offseason. For some, the goals are abstract, and for some, there are specific things to do or avoid. This article will reflect that, with a wide range of different offseason keys.

As you can imagine, this took a while, so some of the information may be slightly inaccurate when you read it, but the broad guidelines should still apply. This will be an oversimplification of each team’s keys to a great offseason, but that’s the point. Each team’s best offseason will be distilled to a simple guideline that, if they follow, would likely result in success.

AFC East

The Bills’ defense pressures Patriots quarterback Cam Newton (via Boston Herald)

Buffalo Bills: Go all in.

Josh Allen’s play was a very pleasant surprise last year, as was the Bills’ appearance in the AFC Championship. It’s time to keep the momentum up and capitalize on their best Super Bowl change since the Joe Kelly era. But, against this Chiefs team, their current roster probably isn’t enough. Improving the trenches would be a huge step in the right direction. The Bills still have time, but they need to toe the line well between patient and complacent. The former could lead to a title. The latter would be a waste of a franchise quarterback.

Miami Dolphins: Build around Tua.

It is far too soon to give up on Tua Tagovailoa. While his rookie season was far from fantastic, like Justin Herbert’s and Joe Burrow’s, it also wasn’t bad. Tua performed like a below-average quarterback but was not one of the year’s worst performers by any means. In fact, rookie Tua Tagovailoa outperformed rookie Josh Allen in both PFF grade and CPOE/EPA composite. It isn’t time to give up, it’s time to snag an elite talent with the third overall pick (Penei Sewell, Devonta Smith, and Ja’Marr Chase are all great candidates). They also have enough space to fill holes (and perhaps splash) in free agency.

New England Patriots: Figure out a plan at QB.

The wording on this one might seem oddly specific, but there’s a reason for that. I am not saying that the Patriots should prioritize getting a quarterback at all costs this offseason. I don’t think Mac Jones is the answer, but he might be worth a shot with their first-round pick. Maybe they want to ride it out with a veteran and enter a soft rebuild. I trust Bill Belichick as both a coach and general manager, but there needs to be a plan, even if that means they have a bad year and get a quarterback in 2022.

New York Jets: Realize the future is all that matters.

The Jets failed their tank this season, ending up with the second pick in the draft and missing out on one of the best quarterback talents in recent memory. They can’t do that again. Sam Darnold is obviously not the answer to their quarterbacking troubles, but I wouldn’t have a problem with the Jets holding off on drafting Justin Field or Zach Wilson in favor of someone in the 2022 draft. More important is avoiding paying for win-now talents or focusing on the playoffs. The Jets need to tank again, and they need to start building for the far(ish) future.

AFC North

Joe Burrow of the Bengals releases a pass during a game against the Steelers (via Cincinnati Bengals)

Baltimore Ravens: Don’t give up.

Lamar Jackson already has a reputation as a poor playoff performer and someone who might underwhelm every year in January. It doesn’t matter. He’s a bona fide franchise quarterback and can absolutely win a Super Bowl with a strong supporting cast around him. And he still has plenty of time to erase those stigmas, as he is younger than Joe Burrow. It is not time for the Ravens to settle for first- and second-round exits. Their Super Bowl window is now, and they need to do something about it. That means bolstering the offense, maintaining the defense, and taking risks. The philosophy needs to be ceiling oriented.

Cincinnati Bengals: Protect Joe Burrow.

Last season, Joe Burrow ranked 27th among 41 qualifiers in Next Gen Stats’ time to throw metric, which measures the amount of time from snap to throw on every play. Even that may have been the result of Burrow himself; his backup (Brandon Allen) ranked 38th, his offensive line was ranked 30th at the end of the year by PFF, and he was sacked the second-most times in the NFL in the 11 weeks that he played. The only question is how. Penei Sewell is the best option, but it would require the Jets to take a quarterback and the Dolphins to take a receiver. This best-case scenario seems relatively likely, but it gets a lot tougher if it doesn’t go that way. Rashawn Slater is an option, although he would be a bit of a reach at pick five.

Cleveland Browns: Avoid large contracts outside of Baker and Ward.

Extending or freeing up money for Baker Mayfield and Denzel Ward, who are both free agents in 2022, should be the top priority. TO make sure they have enough space to do that, the Browns can’t throw a ton of money to give guys long, multi-season extensions. They might want to re-sign some guys or toss out a couple of smaller extensions, and that’s fine. But the only guys that the Browns should really pay a premium for are Baker Mayfield and Denzel Ward. Signing Nick Chubb to a large contract would be a monumental mistake.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Focus on getting younger.

The Steelers have cap space in the negatives this year, but next year they have plenty - but a ton of free agents. It’s hard to pick a direction for this team; they aren’t at the level of top Super Bowl contenders, but they aren’t too many pieces away. While I usually hate hanging on as a fringe playoff team, it makes a lot of sense for Pittsburgh. Contending while still getting younger is possible for this team, and it all starts with the quarterback. Doing what they can to get Ben Roethlisberger’s contract off the books, is a must, but if it doesn’t work out, there is no need to panic. The Steelers have enough young core pieces to be good for a while should they play their cards right.

AFC South

Colts running back Marlon Mack fights for yardage in a game against the Texans (via Battle Red Blog)

Houston Texans: Begin a full rebuild.

Last year, being bad at football didn’t make much sense for the Texans. Not only were they a pretty good team that had a shot at the playoffs, but they also didn’t have their first-round pick after former coach and general manager Bill O’Brien gave it away in a trade for Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills. Their season ended with giving the third overall pick to the Miami Dolphins and franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson requesting a trade. After seeing the haul that Matthew Stafford got, it is clear that the Texans need to pull the trigger on a Deshaun Watson trade (as well as JJ Watt) and add as much draft capital as they can. Then, they need to tank. Only by adding new talent in the draft can they become contenders again.

Indianapolis Colts: Go and get a quarterback.

There were high expectations for the 2019 Indianapolis Colts. They had had a good season the year before, losing to the Chiefs in the second round of the playoffs. Best of all, they had a potential Hall of Fame quarterback in Andrew Luck. Then Luck retired. The Colts, led by Jacoby Brissett, went 7-9 and lost five of their last six. Then, they went and got an okay starting quarterback in Philip Rivers, and almost pulled off an upset against a very good Bills team. Brissett and Rivers are now both free agents, and neither is the answer. The Colts really ought to make a move and get a big name in the trade market. Deshaun Watson is an unlikely answer, as even the Texans will hesitate to send him to a divisional rival. The answer? Carson Wentz. Taking a flier on Wentz elevates their ceiling significantly for a relatively cheap price. It makes a whole lot of sense for Indianapolis.

Update: They did exactly as I hoped. Well done, Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Kill the draft.

When the Jets choked away the top pick by winning two of their last three, the Jaguars caught a huge break. Now, Jacksonville has dibs on one of the best quarterback prospects ever in Trevor Lawrence. To trade away the pick would be overthinking it unless the haul is absurd. Players like Trevor Lawrence simply don’t come along very often. Beyond drafting Lawrence with the first overall pick, the Jaguars need to make a lot of right decisions to replenish one of the worst rosters in the entire NFL. Getting multiple future starters in this draft along with Lawrence would be huge, and might be just enough for us to see a culture change on the level of the Washington Football Team. That would be a huge win for the Jags.

Tennessee Titans: Fix the defense and rethink the offense.

The Titans’ defense was surprisingly awful this season ranking among the very worst units in the league after an average campaign in 2019. Their offense, on the other hand, was great -- until the playoffs. There, we saw an inefficient rushing attack (Derrick Henry totaled -5.6 EPA on the ground) cost the Titans a trip to the Divisional Round. The defense was solid, but Tenessee’s offense really let the team down. The first part of my offseason key is very agreeable and obvious. The second part is more deeply rooted in analytics. The Titans were, on average, more efficient in the air than on the ground, but they ran the ball at an extremely high rate, passing just 41.8% of the time in neutral situations, the lowest mark in the NFL. A lot of data has proven that teams should pass more and that the run setting up the pass is a myth. If the Titans get together a solid defense and pass more, they could truly contend.

AFC West

The Chiefs’ Darwin Thompson is tackled by the Chargers defense (via Arrowhead Pride)

Denver Broncos: Find a new QB.

The Broncos were a sexy playoff pick coming into the year and Drew Lock was gaining traction as a dark-horse MVP pick due to the team’s 4-1 record with him in 2019 and the emergence of two second-year quarterbacks the last two years. In 2020, Lock once again won four games, but this time it came with nine losses and being among the worst quarterbacks in the league. Tua Tagovailoa deserves patience; Drew Lock does not. The issue is that the Broncos possess only the ninth pick in the draft, and are unlikely to end up with any of the consensus top-three quarterback prospects. This situation suggests a trade might be the best option, and I agree with that notion. Moving up for Fields or Wilson could allow this Broncos team to contend despite playing in the same division as Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City Chiefs: Improve the trenches.

The Chiefs are not just set to be contenders for a long, long time, they are already the NFL’s best team. They seemed pretty sure favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so a 31-9 loss was a shocker. It was easy to see how it happened, though. The Chiefs were simply manhandled in the trenches, leaving Patrick Mahomes with no time to make plays and Tom Brady with a clean pocket, and it made all the difference. The Chiefs have negative cap space without easy cuts to add money. Where they can, such as in the draft, the Chiefs need to address this Achilles heel, especially the offensive line. With the interior line, they need to get guys who can start immediately, but they have a bit more time with tackles. Either way, it is clear that this is something they need to address before 2021.

Las Vegas Raiders: Trade Derek Carr and Trent Brown.

I’ve been mostly vague so far, picking out a direction for each team instead of a specific move. There’s a reason that I am breaking the trend with this: I think these moves would be choosing a direction. Carr and Brown could, in theory, net the team a first-round pick as well as a few day-two and -three picks. It would also free up 65 million dollars in cap space over the next two seasons. I think Carr is someone who is underappreciated, but the Raiders need to rebuild and Carr doesn’t fit their window. Marcus Mariota doesn’t either (and isn’t a good quarterback) but he could hold them over for a year. Maybe they could even trade him to the Colts, a deal that could make sense for both sides. Brown is a great tackle, but he’s also very expensive. Cutting him is also an option if no one wants to give picks for him, as his contract has no guaranteed money. In all, I think this team needs an infusion of youth, and that means ridding themself of more expensive, older pieces, even if you could argue they’re the team’s cornerstones.

Los Angeles Chargers: Make some splashes.

The Chargers are always a confusing team. They were tied for the eighth-most likely team to win the Super Bowl in 2019 but went 5-11 and drafted a quarterback out of Oregon Justin Herbert. Herbert went and had maybe the best rookie season of all time, but the Chargers still managed to hit the under, probably a result of a defense that was tenth in yards allowed but 23rd in terms of points. The Chargers are top-ten in cap space and have a high ceiling already. Just like the Broncos, the Chargers need to go all-in if they want to contend in a division with the Chiefs. That probably means signing or trading for a big piece on defense or, even better, bolster an offensive line that was ranked as the worst in the league by PFF. If they do everything right, this team could play in a Super Bowl as early as next season.

NFC East

Washington’s Terry McLaurin reaches for the goal line as he is tackled by Dallas’s Jordan Lewis (via Riggo’s Rag)

Dallas Cowboys: Sign Dak Prescott.

So many of these offseason guidelines focus on the quarterback position, and for good reason. It’s the most important position in football, and because of that, there are a limited number of them that can allow a team to contend. Following his injury, Prescott has been off of most people’s radars and is becoming one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league. He will demand a huge contract, but unless he wants Mahomes money, I think it makes sense to lock him in for the long haul. This Cowboys team has been inconsistent, but Prescott should allow them to consistently contend.

New York Giants: Draft an offensive weapon in round one.

This might make it seem like I think Daniel Jones is a long-term option, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. I just think that, like Marcus Mariota, he can hold the Giants over for a year (and maybe even improve their draft pick). Given the limited value of the position and his injury history, running back Saquon Barkley isn’t the best option as the future focal point of the offense. This year, they need to get a shiny new weapon for their quarterback of the future, then next year they can worry about drafting that quarterback. There are four players to target: Ja’Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, Kyle Pitts, and Jaylen Waddle. For me, that’s also the order I would prioritize them in, and I’d even be willing to put Pitts first. He is a tight end prospect not quite like any we’ve seen before and could be that focal point that this offense needs.

Philadelphia Eagles: Begin a full rebuild.

My goal was to give each team a different direction, but this Eagles team has surprising parallels with the Texans. Just like the Texans, they need to trade key pieces like Carson Wentz and Zach Ertz. Unlike the Texans, they have a potential quarterback of the future and a first-round pick. Jalen Hurts has next year to prove his value, but for now, they need to give him a chance. In the draft, they should probably opt for a receiver then attack other needs after the first round. It’s going to be a long climb back to the Super Bowl, but Philly needs to be patient.

Update: Trading Carson Wentz was a great start. They may even be able to get a first if Wentz plays up to my expectations. Well done here as well.

Washington Football Team: Focus on passing offense.

The Football Team has a young, elite defense, 40 million dollars in cap space, and cornerstones all over the place. The future is bright, but there are two critical things missing: a quarterback, and any weapons outside of Terry McLaurin. The latter can be addressed in the draft, especially with where AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and Justin Jefferson have been drafted. The former needs a trade. Unless Dak Prescott becomes available, which would be shocking, WFT needs to focus on getting a capable, established signal-caller in the trade market. Getting Deshaun Watson is a best-case scenario, and a very intriguing one at that. If his price tag is too large, a player like Jimmy Garropolo may push them over the top. With a competent passing attack, Washington could do even more than become the first NFC East champions to repeat since 2004.

NFC North

Aaron Rodgers and Mitchell Trubisky stand next to each other in a game between the Bears and Packers (via NBC Chicago)

Chicago Bears: Don’t overpay for a QB.

Bears fans often have this strange delusion that they are just a QB away. It’s understandable, given how bad of a player Mitchell Trubisky has been and how elite their defense was just a couple of years ago. Now, though? They’re more than just one piece away from contention. Their defense has been trending downward since they made the playoffs in 2018. That year, they were first in terms of points allowed, then fourth in 2018, then all the way down to 14th this year. Their defense is good but not great. They’re probably going to lose their best offensive player (Allen Robinson) this offseason. Giving even one first-round pick for a quarterback delays an inevitable rebuild. It’s simply not worth it.

Update: They probably didn’t even offer a first for Wentz given the accepted deal, so they’re another team off to a great start.

Detroit Lions: Draft defensive playmakers.

Detroit’s defense has been abysmal for a while now, and only one thing can turn around this bad of a unit: playmakers. While most of my draft suggestions are about teams’ first-round picks, I don’t think that’s where Detroit should address this need. With their first-round pick, I think a wide receiver is a great option given who they are likely to lose in free agency. An even better option, though, would be trading down and then drafting someone like Gregory Rosseau, who at one point was projected as a top-ten pick. In the process, they could pick up another future first-round pick. Another great option is Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. In later rounds, they can go for guys like Elerson Smith and Robert Rochell. I do not think they should stay put and draft Micah Parsons. A linebacker simply isn’t valuable enough to be drafted that high.

Green Bay Packers: Cut your losses with Jordan Love.

The Packers made a very poor decision with their first-round pick last year, confusingly drafting Jordan Love out of Utah State when they still had an arguably elite quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers went and proved he was elite, having a historically great MVP campaign. The Aaron Rodgers trade and free agency rumors have calmed down but will be present as long as he has such a young and talented player backing him up. The Packers need to find a suitor for Jordan Love (there should be teams willing to take a chance on him) and pull the trigger on a trade. If they only get a day three pick, they have to live with their mistakes. Obviously, they won’t be drafting another first-round quarterback this year, so what should they target? How about a weapon for Aaron Rodgers, like Rondale Moore, Rashod Bateman, or Kadarius Toney.

Minnesota Vikings: Improve the secondary.

I am struggling to come up with these for every team that has signed a large running back contract. The lost cap space is never worth it, even when these guys are healthy. Because of Dalvin Cook’s monster contract, the Vikings could lose both of their starting safeties this offseason. They already had one of the worst secondaries in the league (ranked 23rd by PFF) but potentially losing two Pro Bowl-caliber safeties is still going to hurt. Despite other needs, particularly in the trenches, the Vikings should draft for young cornerbacks and safeties. This could mean going for talents like Jaycee Horn and Jevon Holland early if or drafting potential gems Keith Taylor and James Wiggins on day two or three.

NFC South

Panthers linebacker Brian Burns pressures Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (via The Athletic)

Atlanta Falcons: Hit the reset button.

The Falcons have been attempted to contend for the past few years, and it hasn’t worked out in the least. The good thing is that they have no long, expensive contract. They need to start getting rid of veterans and transition into a full rebuild. The good news is that they can get a jumpstart. It feels more and more likely that Zach Wilson will fall into the Falcons’ lap, and if he does, they need to draft him (if he doesn’t they should still draft Justin Fields). They might have Matt Ryan already, but I have plans for him too. Cutting him after June 1 saves around fifteen million dollars each of the next two years and over thirty-five million in 2023. A fresh start is necessary for the Falcons, and they have just the right components for it.

Carolina Panthers: Keep building the defense.

The Panthers were supposed to be one of the very worst teams in the NFL this year, and it was supposed to be because they had the worst defense in the league. Well, their defense was a wonderful surprise and was roughly average as well as very young. I think they need to keep building on top of it, and with all of the offensive talent that deserve high picks, they can get a premium defensive talent later in the draft. One interesting prospect is trading down, then drafting a defender in the mid-first, like I recommended for Lions. I think they should hold off on drafting a quarterback. Assuming neither Fields nor Wilson fall to pick eight, the Panthers should be fine with Bridgewater, even though he obviously isn’t the perfect solution.

New Orleans Saints: Get out of cap hell.

The Saints are far above the minimum of a $180 million dollar cap (and, of course, this is partly due to a massive running back contract), but cap space is relatively easy to clear in the NFL. With some smart cuts and restructures, the Saints can easily get out of this without adding too much money they’ll have to pay in future years. It feels like this team will largely just fade out of relevancy instead of becoming awful. I usually think that, when teams lose a piece as important as Drew Brees, they need to tank and replace them. A soft rebuild, or rebuilding without using a long time to stack up on draft stock and young talent, is perfect for this team. They can be mediocre for a year or two, find a way to get a quarterback, and contend.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Plan ahead.

When you are blessed with a Super Bowl, it’s easy to forget that there is a future to maintain. Obviously, the Buccaneers are contenders and shouldn’t play things too conservatively. I think they should re-sign every key piece they can, including receiver Chris Godwin, even if they have to just give him a franchise tag. They cannot be reckless, though. Tom Brady wants to play until he’s at least 45, but nothing lasts forever, and he hasn’t proven to me that he is still elite. Tampa Bay needs to do their due diligence and listen to quarterback talks. They shouldn’t make a stupid “luxury pick” in the draft and take, say, a running back. They should obviously be focused on winning now, but they shouldn’t be destructive to their future.

NFC West

A pass heads towards the Rams’ Josh Reynolds and the 49ers’ Jason Verrett (via Los Angeles Times)

Arizona Cardinals: Don’t be stupid

The Cardinals have a bright, bright future, and it feels like they’d have to try to mess it up. They need to avoid giving out any ridiculous contracts (obviously Kyler Murray is going to get a huge extension at some point, but he’s almost certainly worth the cost. I’m referring more to giving a large contract to, say, a running back.) They need to be smart with what is likely their highest pick for years. The NFC West is lethal, so the margin for error is pretty low. Especially given the division they play in, cornerback is a necessity. Jaycee Horn might be a bit of a reach, but he’s still a worthwhile pick. WR2 is also a need that can be addressed on day two of the draft. If the Cardinals don’t make poor decisions, they should be contenders for the foreseeable future.

Los Angeles Rams: Improve depth across the board

The Rams find themselves in contention once again for 2020, this time with a shiny new quarterback. Their defense was the best in the entire NFL last year, and though defensive variability suggests this won’t quite repeat, the Rams are pretty set for next year. They are consistently one of the best teams in the league on paper, and that is true once again. They do have depth needs all over the place, however. The offensive tackle position is set for now, but it might be worth a pick, given one of their current tackles is nearly 40 and the other is a free agent next year. Cornerback needs a look beyond Ramsey, although re-signings could fix that. There are more I won’t touch on, but a more “luxury” need is a deep threat for Matt Stafford. A speedster would help stretch the field and give Sean McVay even more opportunity to shine.

San Fransisco 49ers: Bid on Deshaun Watson

Like every other team in this division, the Niners are contenders in 2020. What they are missing is a quarterback that can do anything more than being dragged along by an elite defense and supporting cast. I think of Kyle Shanahan as one of the best coaches and the best play-caller in the NFL, and I think he’s made Garropolo look better than he actually is. Combine that with Deshaun Watson… I would hate it as a Seahawks fan but love it as an NFL fan. It will take a lot to snag Watson. If it would ruin their future, the Niners shouldn’t do it (probably). They need to make a commitment to pushing this team back to its elite status, though, and this would be a great way to do just that.

Seattle Seahawks: Avoid investing in a running back

I have felt for a while now that the Seahawks’ offseason will be decided by what they try and do at the running back position. Right now, I think they are going to make a mistake and give Chris Carson the contract he wants. Even worse, they could use their top pick (a second-rounder) on a running back. To me, this would be the kind of mistake that makes contenders slowly slide away from their former glory. If they don’t blow too much money or draft capital on this low-value position, I will be a lot more optimistic about their future. This would allow them to re-sign key pieces and have another go at full strength. Not only that, but it would make them more likely to stick with a pass-heavy approach, potentially unlocking their offense as it did at the start of last season. If they could get their first-half offense and second-half defense from last season together at the same time, the NFL better watch out.