A Comprehensive Breakdown of the Russell Wilson Trade Rumors
Russell Wilson is no stranger to outlandish trade rumors. Recently, it’s been speculation about trade talks between the Browns and Seahawks where Wilson’s name allegedly came up during discussions about the first overall pick, which became Baker Mayfield. Then, it was suggested that Wilson wanted to play in a big market in New York, whether that was through a trade or free agency. An at the time record deal involving 140 million dollars over four years quieted those talks. Now, the rumors are surfacing again, and they’re seemingly at an all-time peak. These rumors are different. They have teeth.
Often, players as integral to a franchise as a Wilson are thrown into outlandish mock trades. Sometimes, these mock trades become rumors. Someone in the media reports something, it gets blown out of proportion, and suddenly people are concerned about the future for the athlete and the organization. This is not that. Wilson wants to stay in Seattle, but representatives of Wilson approached the organization Thursday with a list of the teams he would waive his no-trade clause for. Wilson neither explicitly demanded nor requested a trade, and you could come away with a variety of opinions about how large of a statement this was, but it was certainly larger than getting put into a ridiculous fake trade.
What is clear is that trust is at an all-time low between Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. Wilson sending in a list was somewhere in between a passive-aggressive threat and a genuine attempt to help the team in their trade talks. It’s almost like one of those scenes in movies where two characters pretend they don’t like or need each other. In the movies, this almost always ends with the two characters realizing how much they mean to each other, but this isn’t the movies. Wilson, Carroll, and the Seahawks need to legitimately re-evaluate their relationship and decide how they want to move on.
How did the situation get to this point, and where is it going? No one can answer those questions perfectly, there is enough information available to try. I am a Seahawks fan, but this is not a rant. It is a deconstruction of the clues that Wilson and the organization have left, their shifts in philosophy, and how this journey might end.
The Three Sides of Russell Wilson
Often, a false dichotomy of Russell Wilson’s play last season is presented: His first eight games and his second eight. This wasn’t actually how the season played out. Instead, there were three different passing attack phases in Seattle. In the first five weeks, Russell Wilson wasn’t just the MVP frontrunner, he was on a historic pace. If his statistics those first five weeks stretched over 16 games, Wilson would have thrown 61 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions with a passer rating approaching 130. That would have been, hands-down, the greatest season from a quarterback in NFL history. Of course, no one expected him to maintain that pace, but it was fun while it lasted, and it seemed like Wilson would finally get that MVP vote he’s been missing his entire career.
The next week, Wilson threw three costly interceptions in an overtime loss to the Cardinals, kicking off a five-week stretch that eliminated him from the MVP conversation. His passer rating was under 100, and his sixteen-game pace was 35 touchdowns to 22 interceptions with 10 fumbles. The difference in performance was as stark as the difference between Tom Brady and Jameis Winston. Seattle, once 5-0, lost 3 of 4 before winning and ending up at 7-3. What happened next depends on who you ask. Pete Carroll either corrected his play-calling for this stretch or over-corrected. In my opinion, it was the latter. Wilson’s attempted cooking may have caused a fire in the kitchen, but Carroll decided to douse it with a hurricane. Seattle’s Super Bowl chances were just collateral damage.
In their first five games, the Seahawks were fourth in early down pass frequency (according to rbsdm.com), and in their second five, they jumped to first. Only in the final third of the season did they dive all the way down to 16th. The EPA on those early-down dropbacks went from third in the league to sixteenth, then to twentieth. They passed 9% more than expected in games 1-5, then again in games 6-10; this dipped to 3% in games 11-16. Here is the relationship between the Seahawks passing frequency on early downs and the EPA/play on those dropbacks:
Because of the exclusion of third downs, this isn’t the best representation of the team, but it is clear it is no myth that the efficiency of Wilson (and the entire passing attack; to ignore his offensive line and weapons is unfair) dipped over time. There isn’t a drastic fall in frequency, but it did pick up in the middle of the season. This lack of a drop-off is largely because so much of the running happened on third on short, as illustrated by this chart via rbsdm.com. The data is from games 11-16 as well as the Wild Card game.
I blame both Schottenheimer and Carroll for this, and third downs were the reason the Seahawks offense was so stagnant in the final six weeks as well as the Wild Card game. Maybe, though, you believe that the runs were simply more successful, a good decision by Schottenheimer and Carrol that maximized the potential of this offense on third down. Alas, you would be wrong, as this is not the case, and this idea can easily be disproven with basic research (the data that follows is from nflsavant.com).
In 2020, from week 12 onward, eight teams found more success on dropbacks (pass attempts, scrambles, and sacks) than rush attempts on third and short (1-2 yards to go). Most of the time, this difference was pretty small, with the team finding nominally more success on pass attempts, something that could perhaps even be brushed away due to the size of the sample. There was only one true outlier in this direction: the Seahawks. Seattle was the best team in the entire league in converting these third and shorts when they passed the ball. When they ran, they were 30th.
Shown in the chart below are the eight teams that were more successful passing on third and short during these weeks than rushing. All the way to the right, over twice as successful at passing the ball on third down compared to rushing than any other team, are the Seattle Seahawks.
The purpose of all of these numbers and charts is to show that Wilson didn’t suddenly fall off of a cliff after week eight and drag the team down with him. There were a variety of factors that hurt the offense, and he was just one of them. Is Wilson without fault? Of course not. But he wasn’t the only reason the offense struggled, and one could even argue that he wasn’t the primary reason the team struggled. Schottenheimer is gone now, but it seems that the issue is more one of philosophy than specific play-calling.
Why now, and who’s to blame?
Russell Wilson has always seemed the loyal type. He’s been nothing but grateful for the coaching staff that gave him a chance in the NFL when they picked him in the NFL nine years ago. He was named a captain in his second season (as well as in college, with at the time Wisconsin guard Travis Frederick saying he had “pure, raw leadership ability”) and has always been a locker room leader. He is always optimistic and only says positive things about his teammates, even when they don’t deserve it.
Again, there have been rumors, but never rumors that felt like threats. This offseason, though, showed a shift in the mentality of Russell Wilson. Writers for theathletic.com point to Super Bowl Sunday as the day he decided to go public with his frustration for the franchise. Watching Tom Brady, an idol, play with what Wilson saw as a great supporting cast caused him to snap. Perhaps it was the presence of Antonio Brown, someone Wilson publicly advocated for Seattle to sign. Perhaps it was that Brady was sacked just once. Perhaps it was the feeling that his relationship with the Seahawks no longer benefited both parties.
Yet the question persists. The Seahawks offensive line used to be much worse, epitomized by a safety taken in a playoff game where Wilson was trampled by his guard. In 2017, Wilson wasn’t just watching the Super Bowl, but the whole playoffs. Wilson has also had better seasons, ones where he has truly carried the team to where they ended up. My theory is that Wilson isn’t fed up with anything that’s changed. He’s simply frustrated with what hasn’t.
The offensive line is only a scapegoat, an easy unit to blame without naming any specific players or causing personal backlash. Wilson can easily point to his career sack number, which ranks 20th all-time, behind players that have all played longer than him. So, he did, and it worked. Most NFL fans and personalities bought the story and started talking about how good Wilson might be if only the offensive line was there. This has been sparked again after the Cardinals signed JJ Watt, with many suggesting that Seattle needs to overhaul their offensive line. Usually, the blame falls places other than on Wilson, but this time, that isn’t the case.
A ton of data has shown that sacks are more of a quarterback statistic than an offensive line statistic, meaning that the quarterback is usually more responsible when he goes down than the big guys in front of him. Other statistics beyond sacks support the idea that Wilson is largely to blame for his sack total. Last season, Seattle finished ninth in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate, meaning that the Seahawks’ offensive line sustained their blocks for at least 2.5 seconds at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL (62%). Even simpler is Next Gen Stats’ time to throw. It measures how long it takes from snap to throw on the average play for every quarterback. Wilson took the fifth-longest among 41 qualifiers.
This quote from Jason Lisk (from something he wrote back in 2009) sums it up pretty well. He would go on to calculate in 2018 that quarterbacks have more control over their sack percentage than their yards per attempt.
“Which brings us to sack rate. It is one of the most consistent things when a quarterback changes teams. It is one of the least consistent things when a team changes quarterbacks. This tells me that the quarterback plays a larger role than people think in determining a team’s sack rate… Sack rate does seem to have a lot to do with a quarterback’s style, decision making, and willingness (or unwillingness) to gamble with a throw before ready.”
Is Wilson just being stupid? That isn’t fair, although it would probably be smart for him to get the ball out a bit faster. He is still quite efficient when he holds onto the ball for a long time, it’s just a playstyle that often results in sacks. And, if it isn’t Wilson’s fault (simply watching him play would lead you to believe that it is given how often he holds onto the ball trying to make a play; again, this often works out, but it also results in a lot of sacks), then it’s about the scheme, not just the offensive line.
Many blame the offensive line because Wilson took five sacks in the Seahawks’ Wild Card loss to the Rams. But it wasn’t the offensive line’s fault that Wilson was throwing deep balls, which simply take a long time to develop. Wilson’s aDOT of 15.2 that game was in the 99th percentile of all games since 2010. That means his average throw was fifteen yards past the line of scrimmage. For additional context, Tom Brady led the league with an aDOT of 9.1, while Alex Smith was last with an aDOT of 5.1.
If the offensive line isn’t at fault here, is Wilson? Probably not. While he had an awful game in the playoffs with a season-high nine bad throws according to Pro Football Reference, he still managed a PFF grade over 90 in 2020 and was ranked as the sixth-best quarterback by PFF, including playoffs and statistics outside of their basic grades. As demonstrated above, the coaching was at least partly responsible for the offense’s second-half dip in performance. And this is the group that is most responsible for Wilson’s trade request: the management and coaching staff.
Pete Carroll is holding Russell Wilson back from his full potential. That’s hardly a controversial take in many NFL circles, but it’s a truth that the Seahawks have yet to realize and confront. The problem is that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks are almost synonymous. Other than his sons, only one current Seahawk can tell Carroll “harsh and uncomfortable truths,” according to the theathletic.com article mentioned earlier. That person is his right-hand man John Schneider. In other words: “Carroll, and by extension his sons, answer to no one.”
Ownership has shown no signs of wanting to part ways with Carroll, and it’s understandable. Carroll and Schneider built and coached the team that won the only Super Bowl in franchise history. The team has been incredibly consistent, making the playoffs in all but two of their years with the team. Is that due to them, or due to Wilson? Their worst two years were their first two, and the only years without Wilson on the team. Wilson has managed a PFF grade over 85 in all but two seasons since, and the same is true of appearing in the top 25 of the NFL Network’s NFL Top 100.
The point is that Russell Wilson is really good. It isn’t as clear-cut with Carroll and Schneider. Sure, they had two of the greatest draft classes of all time in 2010 and 2012. But since then, there’s little evidence that Carroll and Schneider have helped this team. Seattle’s draft hauls have been pedestrian at best, and Carroll’s conservatism has hurt the team, as is illustrated above. It’s not just passing either, as the Seahawks have been painfully unwilling to take risks on fourth down.
In fact, since signing Carroll, the Seahawks have been the least aggressive team in the entire NFL on fourth down. When it is recommended for them to go by the NYT Bot, the Seahawks have gone for it just over 25% of the time since 2010. The chart below shows why the Seahawks lag behind analytically: they simply haven’t changed their ways while the rest of the league has (chart via rbsdm.com).
Shane Waldron is not enough to fix this problem, mostly because Carroll would probably take offense to calling it a problem. Carroll is stuck 15 years in the past, and it is hurting the Seahawks badly. Carroll didn’t fire Schottenheimer because his third-down play-calling was awful, but because Schottenheimer wanted to #LetRussCook again. He didn’t hire Shane Waldron as anything more than a compromise with Wilson. Waldron is a good offensive mind who will be held back by Carroll (for those who don’t know, Carroll doesn’t call specific plays in Seattle but largely shapes what the offense is doing).
To summarize, all of the blame doesn’t fall on a single person. The offensive line, other players, the coaching staff, and Russell Wilson all have a role in this. The one person who seems to be most responsible, though, is Pete Carroll. His control and outdated approach are hurting the team. Despite all he’s given the team, firing Carroll wouldn’t be a bad decision, especially if it would appease Wilson. And, even if Wilson thinks it is, the answer isn’t to spend big in free agency on offensive linemen. The Seahawks only have so much cap space, and with two very solid tackles, they can only really improve the interior offensive line, a position that doesn’t hold too much value.
Where Wilson Stands: Press Conference Analysis
After Wilson signed his record-breaking contract, the team held a celebratory press conference. It is far from a perfect place to get information about Wilson’s opinions on the team, but it gives a glimpse of why he wants to stay, and why he might be willing to leave. I may over-analyze the press conference at points, but it’s a good place to discover the “why” of Russell Wilson giving the Seahawks a list of teams he would waive his no-trade clause for, and to start to develop an idea of how likely a trade might be. (Note: Anything in quotations was said by Wilson unless otherwise specified)
Some of what he says is simply positivity without motive. He compliments a lot of the people around him, including “you two guys next to me” (Carroll and Schottenheimer). One interesting comment is that “there’s a lot of winning in this locker room.” This is interesting because it goes against Wilson’s attitude as of late that the Seahawks need more to win. Usually, this is through the form of public comments about wanting to go and get a defensive superstar or wide receiver. Perhaps Wilson’s relationship with the team is shaky because he feels there is no longer enough winning in the locker room.
One reason why this came as such a surprise to Seahawks fans is that Wilson has always been the loyal type. During the press conference, he cites Derek Jeter as an idol specifically because of his loyalty (he played all 20 of his seasons with the New York Yankees). For someone as legacy-centered as Wilson, it would surely feel nice to be someone like Jeter who is remembered as loyal and as an all-time great of a single team. If all other things were equal, Wilson would want to stay in Seattle.
At one point he said that his goal was to play to “43ish,” and he talked a lot about longevity and wanting to last, both with the team and in the NFL in general. Perhaps, it was all the hits that he sustained that have pushed him over the edge. I believe those hits are primarily his fault, but it isn’t about what I believe; it’s about what Wilson believes. If he feels the team isn’t doing enough to protect him, his longevity, and his legacy, it makes sense that it would hurt his relationship with them.
Related to this longevity was one goal that repeatedly came up: staying where he ended up for ten years. He wanted to do “everything [he could] to be in Seattle” but only if the framework was there for him to stay there. As much as it was about the rumors in the past, that was the heart of the motive for his no-trade clause, which he described as the deal-clincher. It would allow him to stay in Seattle until he no longer wanted to, and it gave him a bit of that power he sought. Wilson wanted to reassess at age 40, not 32. So, again, he will want to stay awhile if he feels like that is still a good option.
The most interesting quote from the whole press conference was something he’s reiterated, again and again, saying it on the Bill Simmons show in 2020 and even tweeting it twice, word-for-word, in 2014 and 2016: “Don’t get bored with consistency.” Carroll’s most positive characteristic is that consistency, a consistency he focuses on instead of maximizing his team’s potential for one run at the Super Bowl. Wilson has never won eight games or fewer in a season, so, according to this way of thinking, he really shouldn’t be “bored” or show that he wants Seattle to change.
If you asked him directly, Russell Wilson would likely tell you that this philosophy is still a big part of his life, or maybe find a way around the question. Internally, though, it seems the truth is different. Wilson doesn’t want to watch the Super Bowl from his couch, even if he won 12 games that regular season. Wilson is no longer content with being good but not at the top, both personally (zero career MVP votes) and with his team (zero conference championship appearances since 2014). Russell Wilson is bored with consistency.
What happens next?
At this point, it should be made clear that, again, Wilson neither demanded nor requested a trade, and the Seahawks have shown no signs of being deep in trade talks with any team. Schneider and Carroll believe in listening to any trade offer because it might be worth it. They have no untouchables. That means that, if one of the four teams (Bears, Cowboys, Raiders, and Saints) that Wilson has said he would waive his no-trade clause for makes an offer good enough, the Seahawks would certainly consider it.
According to NFL Network’s Michael Silver, the starting point for any deal would be three first-round picks. Two and a couple of young talents might suffice, and, either way, there needs to be filler to match Wilson’s salary. In all, with the contract, the high return he will require, and the limited potential trade destinations, creating a fair Russell Wilson trade is no easy feat. Many have and will continue to build trades that make varying amounts of sense for each side, but I’ll just try to get a basic idea of what it would take for every team on his list to trade for Wilson (in alphabetical order).
The Bears make little sense for Wilson, but he put them on the list, so they may be one of the best candidates for Seattle. Ryan Pace has shown a willingness to give picks for superstars like Khalil Mack in the past, and he absolutely would consider giving picks and young talent for Wilson. Even with him, they might not be all that great of a football team, so their picks could still hold some value. If the Seahawks don’t want a quarterback in return, the Bears make a lot of sense. Perhaps they could get three firsts, a deal that might be worth it if Wilson is set on leaving. If not, though, they shouldn’t make that trade given Wilson’s immense value.
The Cowboys are a very interesting option. They could probably trade for Wilson then get most of what they gave back for Dak Prescott after franchise-tagging him. If their negotiations with Prescott fall through, this could be a pretty good strategy. If not, the package will probably look similar to the one from Chicago, although Dallas has a significantly higher pick in this year’s draft. Just like the Bears, the Cowboys make a good bit of sense for the Seahawks to maximize Wilson’s return. Dak could also be involved in a pretty even quarterback swap.
Trading Russell Wilson for a pair of firsts and Derek Carr feels like what the Seahawks will do if they end up trading Wilson if only to spite me. Carr is a quarterback who is much more willing to hand the ball off as many times as Pete Carroll desires. If he isn’t involved in the deal, the package will again be draft pick-based and similar to the other potential deals I’ve discussed. The Raiders are also another team that feels like a weird inclusion for Wilson. They have a coach in Jon Gruden who is close-minded when it comes to analytics and have less than Seattle in terms of weapons and pieces to help Wilson win.
The Saints are an interesting option but are probably the hardest team to build a trade with. Their first-round pick this year is very low (#28) and, with Wilson, all of the picks they can give will probably be in that range. And a trade could only be made for Wilson if the Saints find a way out of their negative sixty-five million dollars in cap space. In all, it’s hard to see the Saints putting together a very good offer for Wilson, and they feel like a longshot.
Here, we can see that Seattle is still the favorites for Wilson, but Vegas thinks a trade is a legitimate possibility. It is important to remember that sportsbooks have the job of balancing money, not showing the actual chances of something happening. I think the Seahawks odds are closer to the odds that you get if you place a bet (92.6%) than the odds compensating for the sportsbook being a money-making operation. Nine times out of ten, Wilson stays, but the one time is scary.
Closing Thoughts
It seems that Wilson is voicing his frustrations as a tactic to convince the team to spend on offensive line help in free agency, but research shows that he is hit so much because of his playstyle, not his offensive line. Splurging on talents like Jadeveon Clowney and Jamal Adams hasn’t worked out for the team, and leaves Seattle in an unstable situation (not to mention lacking a cornerback who can even hope to contain talents like DeAndre Hopkins). Russell Wilson isn’t the head coach or general manager for a reason, but Pete Carroll and John Schneider aren’t all that much better.
The duo is still coasting off of the success of a few draft classes and has been average at best in drafts since then. Their refusal to listen to others hurts them because their philosophies are outdated. Carroll still doesn’t understand that he needs to be much less conservative on third downs and focus on winning, not turnover prevention. Trading their franchise cornerback for too little, then handing the ball off fifty times a game would be an absolute disaster and backfire on Seattle immediately.
There is no perfect solution to this situation, although firing Carroll might be a good start. Russell Wilson is not the same person he was in 2019, and his frustration has only increased since. He wants change, something Pete Carroll is incredibly resistant to. If anything tears this franchise apart, that would be it. The NFL is a league full of innovation, and Carroll can’t catch up.
Trading Wilson would be a mistake, a culmination of the missteps and missed opportunities Seattle has made in these last few years. It would be a signal of defeat before the fight is over, and the decision would be felt by the franchise for years, decades even. To paraphrase the 2012 Passenger classic, you’ll only know you need him when you let him go.